A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
